Negative Waves 2006 Baseball Preview

Todd Hoyer's Preview
Mike Fertig's Preview
Matt DeRosa's Preview

Todd Hoyer's Preview

Accountability, one thing that is lacking in the world of sports prognosticators. Unless you're a compulsive gambler and your wife/accountant takes a look at your bank statements, you really don't hear the cement-heads on talk radio looking back at their previous picks and saying, "Wow, I was wrong, I really don't know what I'm talking about."

So, I stand before you, as one accountable, and will briefly look at last year, (click here if you don't believe me) :

• I picked the Yankees to win the AL East with a record of 96-66. The Yankees won the AL East with a record of 95-67. And yes, I am the smartest man alive.
• I picked the Indians to win the AL Central with a record of 90-72. The Indians actually won more than I had predicted, 93-69, but weren't able to chase down the White Sox at 99-63.
• The AL West I picked the Mariners, and it came in as the Angels. But I said at the time that I didn't care.
• In the NL I picked the Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers w/ the Phillies as the Wild Card. It came in Braves, Cardinals, Padres, w/ the Astros getting the wild card by one game over the Phillies.

So there you go, not bad. I totally missed the whole White Sox thing, but so did everyone else except for Fertig who was probably the most accurate, despite picking the Cubs to go to the NLCS, and Nomar winning the MVP. Which brings me to my next point.

Being a Homer. This off-season in a private, now to become public conversation, Fertig accused me of being a homer. I would say a homer is someone who has an unrealistic view of their team. Someone who is thinking more with their heart than their head. A home is usually a bad gambler. I have a somewhat hard and fast rule about never gambling on my team. Now that won't stop me from throwing a ten buck flyer on a futures bet like the Browns winning the Super Bowl next year.

Anyway, Fertig accused me, ME of being a homer. If you go to the tape and check picks from last year I picked the Indians to finish 90-72 and to lose to the Yankees in the ALCS. At 93-69 they exceeded my prediction therefore my "homer" pick is not "homerish" at all. And the fact that at 93-69 they didn't make the playoffs was merely a statistical fluke. I mean, in the NL they would have had the 2nd best record, and if they were in the NL west they would have won that division by 11 games. So, I think my prediction was not only correct, but certainly lacked homerness.

Now, I'm not going to go so far as to call Fertig a homer, although I will present the reader with his prediction of a Cubs Wild Card, Cubs losing in a 7 game series to the Cards in the NLCS, not to mention the aforementioned Nomar Garciaparra MVP pick. Who's the homer now? Cubs finished 79-83, well out of the playoffs, and closer to my prediction of 85-77 for the Cubs, which in retrospect was very generous.

I'll leave it to Fertig to defend himself and point out that really the biggest homer of the bunch was DeRosa picking the Cubs to win the World Series.

Let me say it again loud and clear to all the Cub fans. A Dusty Baker coached team will NEVER win a World Series.

So why am I dwelling on the past when we have this season to get to? Because through studying the past we can accurately predict the future, and what do we learn from studying last year: A) Pitching really does win championships. B) The Yankees will always be there through sheer force (ˇand moneyˇ.and steroids/human growth hormone/amphetamines/gay players). C) One truly great player can make a difference (Pujols). D) A Dusty Baker coached team will NEVER win a World Series.

So without further adieu here's what'll happen in '06. (By the way, I'm not going to give all the records, because no one cares, plus it's too hard to work out the wins and losses of all the teams and having them even out properly with interleague play, the unbalanced schedule and different numbers of teams in the different divisions/leagues). * denotes Wild Card.

AL:
The White Sox are just really good, even though I hate to admit it. They were the best team in baseball last year and got even better in the off season. They're the team to beat and they know how to win, and now they have the confidence to go out there and intimidate people. That said, I'm picking the A's to win the AL. The Yankees will easily win a weaker East, and the Oakland A's with their young gunslingers will win the West. The Indians will almost by default win the wild card because there simply aren't as many competitive teams in the AL this year, with the Red Sox, Twins and Angels on their way down and the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Mariners probably a year or two away.

ALCS - A's over White Sox in 6

NL: The Braves are the class of the league and will win the East for the 50th year in a row. No one is any good in the Central except for the Cardinals, and the whole West sucks. Basically the NL should be ashamed of itself. It's like NFC. The Cardinals will win a ton of games because they get to play the Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Brewers, and Astros a million times.

NLCS - Cardinals over Braves in 5

WORLD SERIES - A's over Cardinals in 6

AL MVP - Eric Chavez
AL Cy Young - Johan Santana
NL MVP - Albert Pujols
NL CY Young - Jason Schmidt

When it comes to baseball, I find that I probably know more about it than any of my colleagues here at Negative Waves. I mean Hoyer keeps talking about these Cleveland Indians like they're the Yomiuri Giants of the 1960's. I mean, c'mon. And DeRosa thinks Dusty Baker is the greatest thing to happen to Chicago since they put out the fire.

Now despite what Hoyer will try to tell you about DeRosa and I being "homers," the fact is that all three of us are homers. In fact, every baseball fan is. It's very difficult to prognosticate when your favorite team actually has a ballclub that can compete, which is what we're facing with both the Cubs and the Indians. The problem is, everyone wants to be the most accurate and wants the credit for being the most knowledgable, but in doing so, they can't put aside their own biases or favoritisms. But that's all part of the game.

If you go back and look at last years predictions, you'll notice that I nailed everything, with the exception of the National League Central, where I picked the Cubs to win the Wild Card. I'll admit, this was mostly wishful thinking, but there were a lot of professionals who picked the Cubs to win the division, so I don't think you can accuse me of being a homer in that particular instance. Picking Nomar to win the MVP, well yes, I'll admit, that was extreme wishful thinking. But the fact is, he got injured way too early in the season to even discount my prediction. Who knows what could've been. And if you remember, when Nomar came back late in the year, he was hitting well. So perhaps that injury was the difference in my being 100% correct last year, rather than the, what, 95% correct that I was?

Anyway, on with the prognosticating.

AL West

1. Oakland
2. Seattle
3. Los Angeles
4. Texas

This is actually sort of a tough division this year. Oakland once again has a great pitching staff, but can their sabre-metric offense score enough runs? I'm thinking it'll do the job. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have become regular contenders, but I sort of get the feeling that they're aging a bit too fast. I think they'll falter and not really be able to put anything together. Seattle has an awful bullpen, but they have some hitters who need to bounce back. Plus, their phenom pitcher Felix Hernandez will win 22 games this year. Look for Ichiro, Sexson, and Beltre to have big years, and the addition of Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima will help them make a push too. But again, Oakland has too many studs in their starting rotation and last year's Rookie-of-the-Year Huston Street, will finish the games for 'em. And as for Texas, they've got one hell of a lineup, but despite attempts to get a pitching staff that can win some games for them, they failed at doing this successfully.

AL Central

1. Chicago
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Cleveland
5. Kansas City

Ha ha! Take that Hoyer. Those Indians which were a fluke last year are gonna drop back to reality this year. When your number one pitcher could start as an offensive lineman for the Browns, you've got to ask yourself just what you expect. Okay, I'll admit that I'm dropping the Indian low here out of spite, but really, I don't know what everyone sees in this team. They've got good young players at shortstop and catcher. Everyone else is just a little bit overrated if you ask me. I look for good ol' Jimmy Leland to produce some magic in Detroit. Minnesota still as Cy Young candidate Johan Santana backed with solid starters who can each win 15-18 games a piece. And look for the young Francisco Liriano to emerge this year with some big wins. Kansas City, well, what more can you say but just Kansas City.

AL East

1. New York
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay

I actually have a feeling that Boston could drop into fourth place this year. Curt Schilling is only one man and though I feel he's poised to have a healthy strong year, I don't really see David Wells having one. They do have Josh Beckett and a few other highly touted prospects, but I think that the club house chemistry might be their undoing this year. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz will certainly win their share of ballgames, but don't be surprised when Manny Ramirez is traded to the National League sometime this year. Toronto has made some great additions underneath the radar. A.J. Burnett (if he can get and stay healthy), Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, and Benji Molina. The big question is whether their role players can step up. As for the Yankees, well what can you say. That lineup is ridiculous.

NL West

1. Los Angeles
2. San Diego
3. San Francisco
4. Arizona
5. Colorado

This Dodger team is for real. Adding Nomar (who was scratched from opening day with a rib injury) and Furcal were great additions. But the best addition might be Jae Seo coming over in a deal with the Mets. I loved this guy two years ago, but he was still too raw to succeed. But now he's starting to figure out the game and will be the bright spot in the Dodger's rotation. Look for San Diego to put the pressure on though. Their bullpen is solid with the closing punch of Scott Linebrink setting up for Trevor Hoffman. If they can take a lead into the seventh or eighth, they're gonna win 95% of the time. And adding Mike Piazza won't hurt too badly. He's out of the spotlight in New York and in a laid back Southern California atmosphere I get the feeling he's bound to bounce back from a disappointing 2005 season. The Giants have a solid team again, but I still don't believe that they can actually win with Bonds around. You would think he would help, but I honestly believe that having him around is still a circus. The homerun chase, the steroid allegations, the reality show - none of it seems to me like it'll add much. Look for Noah Lowry to excel, however, and rookie Matt Cain as well. These two starters could be the difference down the stretch.

NL Central

1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Houston
4. Milwaukee
5. Pittsburgh
6. Cincinnati

That's right, I picked the Cubs to win it. Why? Because I'm a Cub fan, that's why. And to stick it in Hoyer's face at the end of the year when I'm right. Here's why the Cubs are gonna win. Jacque Jones. That's right. Jacque Jones. He's not gonna hit much more that .280, if he's lucky. And he's not gonna hit many more than 25 homeruns, if he's lucky. But he's gonna defend well. He's actually the top rated defensive outfielder in Chicago right now. He's got speed and he was at the top of the league in assists from the outfield. Coupled with fellow Frenchman Juan Pierre in center, and the eager youngster who's name could be pronounced with a French flair, Matt Murton, in left field, and I think this club will win games through smart fielding. I say this in spite of Dusty Baker and his seeming inability to manage a team whose players can actually field their respective postions. St. Louis still has some star power in Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Chris Carpenter, but I don't think they have the supporting cast around them. And save for Jason Isringhousen and Brad Thompson, their bullpen is weak. Which reminds of reason number two why the Cubs will win it: they have the strongest bullpen in the National League. Just watch. Houston might overtake St. Louis if Roger Clemens comes back. They have an already stong pitching staff, but I'm not sure the offense is there. Milwaukee continues to improve, but it's still gonna be too little. And actually, it's Pittsburgh that makes me the most nervous. Zach Duke is a stud pitcher waitng to happen, Jason Bay is already a stud, Sean Casey certainly won't hurt anything. Plus, watch for new closer Mike Gonzalez to notch 35 saves this year. But they're still Pittsburgh, and they'll falter in the end.

NL East

1. New York
2. Atlanta
3. Philadelphia
4. Florida
5. Washington

This is the year that the Braves are finally unseeded from their run of like 49 straight division championships. Carlos Belrtan, David Wright, and Carlos Delgado will anchor a lineup that will put some runs on the board. Jose Reyes will steal 50 bases and score 120 runs. Billy Wagner will save 40 games. The big question mark is in the rotation. Can 40 year old Tom Glavine find his winning stuff? Will Pedro Martinez stay healthy? Is Steve Trachsel really still pitching? Can Victor Zambrano become something? And who the hell is Brian Bannister? The Braves still have John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. The two of them could be enough to help this team win. But I question the offense this year. The Phillies keep knocking at the door, but no one will let them in. They'll find themselves out in the cold at the end of this season as well. And I'm picking Joe Girardi led Florida to finish higher than Washington, even though Washington could very well finish in third place and Philadelphia could end up in the cellar. Livan Hernandez will pitch 235 innings this year, but how many will he win. Look for John Patterson to be the difference maker in the rotation. And Alfonso Soriano will be traded before the year's out as well.

So there you have the breakdown by divisions. Let's look at the year end totals:

AL West: Oakland A's
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL East: New York Yankees
AL Wild Card: Minnesota Twins

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL East: New York Mets
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves

AL playoffs:
Yankees defeat the Twins
A's defeat the White Sox

A's defeat the Yankees

NL playoffs:
Cubs defeat the Braves
Dodgers defeat the Mets

Cubs defeat the Dodgers

World Series:
Cubs Win!!!!!!

That's right. I'm picking my Cubbies to win it all. Whose the homer now, Hoyer?

Oh, well I guess me.
They'll win it, and I'll hate it because that'll mean that Dusty Baker will get his contract renewed and I'll have to put up with him for like 10 more years. I hate Dusty. Let's be clear about that. At least, I hate him now. When he wins the World Series, I'll love him, and I'll make NO apologies for it.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez (again)
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL Rookie-of-the-Year: Felix Hernandez (assuming he's eligible)
AL Manager of the Year: Jim Leland
NL MVP: David Wright
NL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
NL Rookie-of-the-Year: Josh Barfield
NL Manager of the Year: Willie Randolph

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Now let me tell you about a previously private, now to be public conversation. It happened over beers at T33 right after we made our predictions for the upcoming 2005 baseball season and Todd told us that he still thought the Tribe was a year or two away from contending and that his pick was a little optimistic. Since I wasn't recording the conversation and I don't have a photographic memory, I'm paraphrasing, but I distinctly remember this discussion. Now, does this mean Todd's pick didn't turn out to be accurate? No? I admit, he called it right. Does it mean it was a homer pick that just happened to be correct, of course it does. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. Not that I'm calling Todd a blind squirrel or anythingˇ

As far as Dusty Baker and I go, plenty of managers have had problems in the their first post seasons. Even Fertig's boy (old man,) Jim Leyland, was known for not being able to get the Pirates to the World Series when he had a steroid-free and three time MVP Bonds and an all star in Bonilla. Now he's a magical genius because he won one World Series with a stacked team even though he has a career .486 winning percentage. That's some magical under .500 action fellas! By the way, Dusty's career winning percentage is .537.

Now, let's take a look at my picks from last year:

In the AL East, if you would have taken the Yanks and slid them up one and the BoSox down one, I was absolutely correct with the top two along with the next three places if the O's didn't fade down the stretch. I have the AL Central totally pegged as long as you swap the Twins with the White Sox and forget the fact that the ChiSox won the World Series. In the AL West, you can't get much better than my LA, Oakland, Seattle, Texas picks as long as you rearrange Seattle and Texas.

I'm right on the money when it comes to the NL East, calling the Braves the team on top at the end of the season. Now, just drop Florida two places and it's perfect. See how good I am at calling these things. Now, the NL Central: I've been called out as a homer because of this pick, but in my defense I will say this. I truly believed that if the Cubs' pitching staff could stay healthy (it was a big "if," I understood that) and their young guys in the pen could be effective, the Cubs would have won the Central and then I was basing wining the Series on all that good Karma that should be coming the Cubs way. I mean, you give up Lou Brock for nothing, you'd think some things would go our way after a couple of decadesˇ Here's the thing, the Cubs could have been good last year, on paper, they could have been very good- they weren't. There you have it. But do you honestly believe that if any of the teams everyone is picking to go to the playoffs (especially the White Sox) lose two of their top three pitchers, their shortstop and their third baseman for long periods of time, they're going to the playoffs? But anyway, I digressˇ I did call Milwaukee's good year along with Cincy and Pittsburgh blowing. I'll concede blowing it on the Astros, but that's it! In the NL West, I was dead on unless you count putting the Giants in second place over AZ. But other than all of that, I was perfect. Click here if you don't believe me.

That's enough looking at my past glory. Let's look at the 2006 picks. With a few exceptions, the standing change drastically every year. That's why it makes me laugh when predictions from all over the place have the teams in basically the same spots as they ended up the year before with only minor changes. Where are the bold predictions like Fertig's White Sox pick last year? Here they are.

AL East

I went against the Yanks last year and I just shouldn't do that. One of the constants in the standings I spoke about above is that the Yanks will be on top of the division at the end of the season. I don't think Toronto is going to end up anywhere this year especially only getting 15 starts from Burnett (and I just noticed after making that statement that he was going to miss two starts with an elbow problem) and B.J. Ryan blows out his arm or shoulder in some way-- all that dough will be down the drain. So it has to be the Red Sox in the Wild Card once again. The D-Rays will make the jump to respectable team this year. There's some boldness for you!

1. Yanks
2. BoSox*
3. Jays
4. Rays
5. O's

AL Central

It's going to be so funny when the once dependable White Sox bullpen starts blowing lead after lead and then Ozzie's comments start pissing off the players and the whole team collapses into one huge mess. The reason the Sox won it all last year was because of their bullpen and if there's another constant other than the Yanks making the playoffs every year, it's that bullpens are inconsistent. World-beaters the year before suck something fierce the next and that's what's going to happen to the Sox this year. Jenks blew up to 500 pounds over the offseason and will probably have a gripper after pitching to four batters and walking all four of them on 16 pitches to blow the save. Cotts will follow the fine tradition of lefty relievers who are a hit one year and can't stop the hits the next. Hermanson is already on the DL. With Thome's bad back giving out on him by June, the Sox attack will falter badly. The tribe will regress a little leaving an opening for the Twins to climb back to the top of the division.

1. Twinkies
2. Tribe
3. Tiggers
4. ChiSox
5. Royals

AL West

Everybody is calling for the A's to win it all this year. I don't buy it, with apologies to my brother-in-law. Then again, I could be wrong. This division gives me headaches when trying to prognosticate. I think I might just pick teams from a hat. Of course, when it comes out correct at the end of the year, I'll take full credit.

1. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Athletics
3. Rangers
4. Seafarers

NL East

As I said last year, I'm going to pick the Braves until they prove me wrong. Big name pickups by the Mets usually blow up in their face, so Wagner will blow his arm out in the first few months and Delgado will bust a knee when some runner runs into him when he's covering first base. Hey, I calls'em likes I sees them. The Phils will do some damage, but not enough to get into the playoffs. Nat and Fish fight for fourth place.

1. Bravos
2. Phils
3. Metropolitans
4. Nats
5. Fish

NL Central

With the Cards losing their dependable peripheral players, they won't have anybody on base when they get their hits, especially when that midget they have over at shortstop wakes up from his dream and realizes he's not a major leaguer. (Why am I so angry at Eckstein? Because he flies in the face of the excuse that if I were six inches taller I'd be in the Majors and I just can't forgive him for that.) Their bullpen is worse off than last year, which will put more pressure on the starters who will promptly get hurt. The 'stros will not have Clemens back, (even though I'm holding him he's taking up valuable space on my friggin fantasy baseball team until he make sit official. He's killing me!) and Petitte will be average leaving Oswalt as the only one to carry the rotation. Milwaukee, being the hot pick by everyone is still a year away and will probably regress before they get better next year. They'll end up a bit under .500. The Pirates got better, but they're still not a .500 team and the Reds are just plain horrible. Of course I'm calling for the Cubs to win the division and make the playoffs. They lost at least 25 games by one or two runs. (I just spent an hour looking for last year's records in one-run games and couldn't find it, but I'm sure it was at least 25 games.) With the Cubs improving the bullpen greatly over the season, I think it's safe to say that 11 of those games would have been won with the new bullpen. Take those 11 games and tack them onto the win column from last year and you get 90 wins and, hey presto, the Cubs are in the playoffs. Simple logic tells you the Cubs are in like Flynn! If you add a more dynamic offensive charge, we're talking 95 wins. And here's another logical argument for the Cubs winning the Series. The team with the third longest dry spell in winning the Series wins it 2004, the team with the second longest dry spell wins it all in 2005, what's the next logical step? That's right, Cubs surprise everybody by winning the division, playoffs and World Series in surprisingly easy fashion. Thereby, relieving me of having a gripper sometime in October. Simple Logicˇ

1. Cubs
2. Cards*
3. BrewCrew
4. 'Stros
5. Buckos
6. Red Stockings

NL West

This division is just a mess. Whoever wins it this year also will be just above .500 like last year. Pads have the more complete team than all the others, so I'll call for them winning once again with the Dodgers and the D-Backs close on their heels. The Giant's outfield will crumble into dust by mid July since they are on average 75 years old. Rockies can't get a break.

1. Pads
2. The Team Formally Known as Brooklyn
3. D-Backs
4. San Francisco Baseball Giants
5. Rockies

AL Playoffs
Twinkies over Damn Yanks
BoSox over The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

AL Championship
BoSox over Twinkies

NL Playoffs
Cubs over Pads
Cards over Bravos

NL Championship
Cubs over Cards

World Series
Cubs over BoSox which becomes anticlimactic since this series was supposed to have happened in 2003. I'll take it though.

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